There Are Some Statistics Engineers Can Use
The research paper Statistical laws for career longevity is an amazing reference tool that uses data to determine a career path – and it can quite literally figure out your career.
The Stochastic Model (used in finance) can be used in careers by adding random progress within a career and random termination of set careers. Using the model, it becomes solvable in predicting the probability density function of career longevity.
For the model to determine longevity, every employee will begin a career with 0 credibilities and has to go through a development curve.
At each position X in a career, there would be an opportunity for employees to progress or stagnate. New opportunities correspond with career position advancement from position X.
The model then accounts for every day worked in a particular career. Optimally individuals should make progress at an equal rate as time worked, when one of these doesn’t grow at the same time there is a bigger chance of career stagnancy or even termination.
While human data is not part of the model, it can be applied. As the author states, when gathering data on the model it became clear that it could show career trajectory. Because data recording of social phenomena is now widely available theoretical models of social dynamics with statistical physics can measure what careers longevity should look like, and what would be considered the “right” time to receive promotions or advance careers.
It could estimate when a career will plateau or simply if an employee is on track within a company.
