The next few weeks could determine which economic forces prevail and shape the fortunes of households and businesses heading into the midterm elections. Yet, the economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, led by trade deficits and a drop in inventory purchases. “There’s no question the market is pricing in a recession,” said Anthony Chukumba, an analyst at Loop Capital Markets. The one bright spot for the economy has been the labor market — which has added 1.7 million jobs so far this year. The U.S. unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, is near record lows and wages continue to tick up.
